Steel Mills' Restocking Ends, Iron Ore in the Doldrums [[SMM Brief Commentary]]

Published: Apr 30, 2025 16:19

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Today, DCE iron ore futures continued to trade in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2509 closing at 703.5, down 0.78% for the day. Traders' enthusiasm for selling was moderate; steel mills had largely completed their pre-holiday inventory restocking, resulting in fewer inquiries. The market trading atmosphere was moderate. In the Shandong region, the mainstream transaction prices of PB fines were around 755-760 yuan/mt, down 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices. In the Tangshan region, the transaction prices of PB fines were around 765-770 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday's prices.

According to the SMM survey, on April 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills surveyed by SMM was 88.89%, up 0.31 percentage points MoM. The daily average pig iron production of the sampled steel mills was 2.4535 million mt, up 12,000 mt MoM. SMM estimates that pig iron production will start to pull back next week. However, with steel mill profits currently being moderate, the decline in pig iron production will be relatively small. The overall demand for iron ore still provides some support for ore prices. Considering the pressure from news of crude steel production restrictions, it is expected that iron ore prices will face difficulties in both directions after the holiday, mainly continuing to fluctuate rangebound.

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